Source: Zanu PF dragging Zimbabwe to the pits –Newsday Zimbabwe
President Emmerson Mnangagwa is not ready to cede power.WHEN Zanu PF sneezes, Zimbabwe catches a cold.
The ongoing internal power struggles within the party threatens to drag Zimbabwe into the abyss as both business and citizens adopt a wait-and-see approach.
Zanu PF in its history has never managed leadership succession well.
Power has always been usurped through political machinations or use of brute force.
The first power change from founding leader, Ndabaningi Sithole, to Robert Mugabe in 1975 was caused by Zanla forces at Mgagao in Tanzania.
The armed men installed Mugabe without any internal contestation and the Chimoio congress was a coup de grace.
Mugabe remained at the helm of the party for 42 years.
He was ousted by a coup in November 2017.
The military couched its intervention into the internal Zanu PF power struggle as defenders of the Constitution and thwarting a threat that would have caused national destabilisation.
It should be said that current leader, Emmerson Mnangagwa, was the chief beneficiary of the November 2017 coup.
Many inside and outside Zanu PF thought Mnangagwa was a transitional leader and would bow out in 2023 or latest 2028 as the Constitution limits the tenure of a president to two terms.
Mnangagwa is not ready to cede power.
Zanu PF is not planning any peaceful succession.
Some within the party have nailed their colours to the mast that Mnangagwa should succeed Mnangagwa.
Some senior party members started the whispering campaign that Mnangagwa should serve until 2030, a good two years beyond the constitutional term limit.
The party at its Bulawayo congress even passed Resolution Number 1, that mandated the government to ensure Mnangagwa’s term was extended.
Implementing the resolution has been facing two major hurdles: internal opposition and national constitutional requirements.
This has not dampened the resolve of Mnangagwa’s supporters.
They are certain legally or extra-legally Mnangagwa would have his term extended.
It smells like 2017 all over again.
There were demotions, suspensions and in some instances, outright expulsions from the party to prop that Mugabe be a candidate in 2018.
It is interesting to note that Zanu PF immediately after Mnangagwa secured his presidency, albeit controversially in 2018, the party moved to amend the Constitution and removed the running mate clause.
The clause was removed on the basis that it creates two centres of power.
Zanu PF prefers an appointed Vice-President who serves at the mercy of the President.
It does not want certainty in its succession.
It does not care what that does to the economy or society when anxiety reaches the pitch.
Several independent media reports have reported on the stormy politburo meeting that nearly ended the Mnangagwa 2030 agenda.
It was reported that Vice-President Constantino Chiwenga presented a dossier on corruption allegations against Mnangagwa allies.
Chiwenga is said to have demanded their immediate arrest.
Mnangagwa played along, but was worried to the extent that he missed this year’s United Nations General Assembly so that he could douse the flames in the party.
Mnangagwa did a swift strategic reshuffle of the politburo.
A reshuffle that beyond the act exposed his hand — consolidating his power at the same time emasculating his internal rivals.
The biggest casualty of the reshuffle was Obert Mpofu.
He was removed from the powerful secretary-general post and reassigned to ICT.
In his place came long time Mnangagwa ally — Jacob Mudenda.
The same Mudenda who in 2004 was suspended for being an integral member of the Dinyane Declaration.
Mnangagwa also reassigned Ziyambi Ziyambi as legal secretary and Patrick Chinamasa as treasurer general.
It remains to be seen how the internal rivals will respond, but one thing is certain — the markets and citizens — are rattled and in a state of anxiety.
If this power struggles stretch into 2028, the country would have long ground to a halt.
Businesses cannot implement any long-term plans and citizens will be fearing the return to forced political meetings and public humiliation of perceived enemies.
In the immediate term, businesses and those rich enough will be moving their forex across the borders.
Some will even go into self-imposed exile for fear of being associated with the wrong basket.
We are also likely to see a drop in social services.
It should be remembered that in Zimbabwe, there is the conflation of the State and party.
Many in civil service and local authorities, especially at the top, are politically appointed.
They are more likely to spend their time at Zanu PF political meetings than their day jobs.
And worst of all, zvigananda will be enjoying their last supper.
Many lucrative tenders would be dished out and paid for in advance.
The political elite need the resources for the political Armageddon.
It cannot be denied that when Zanu PF sneezes, Zimbabwe catches a cold.
Evidence is all over that when there is instability in Zanu PF, it naturally transfers into the State.
The years 1997, 2008 and 2017 have proven what happens when Zanu PF is in turmoil.
It was in 1997 when war veterans were paid lump sums that crashed the Zimdollar against the greenback.
They were certain to remove Mugabe then, hence Mugabe had to mollify them with payouts.
The 2008 harmonised elections were a result of Zanu PF internal power struggles that played out at the Goromonzi conference in 2006.
Zimbabwe was forced to go to general elections twice in three years.
And lastly, Mugabe’s graceless fall in a coup in 2017.
All these events changed the social and economic environment.
Business and citizens paid the costs of Zanu PF power struggles.
As the power struggle in Zanu PF plays out, like in years past, many things will freeze and corruption will rise.
The possibility of another coup remains high, civil military scholars argue — a coup begets a coup.
Let cool heads in Zanu PF have the sense to stop this sooner than later.
They cannot afford to burn the country once again.
- Paidamoyo Muzulu is a journalist based in Harare. He writes here in his personal capacity.
The post Zanu PF dragging Zimbabwe to the pits appeared first on Zimbabwe Situation.