Our study of Zimbabwe’s land reform after 25 years has been looking at land use and environmental change and the intersection with economic, social and political processes. Over the last year we have been analysing land use cover change data across all of our sites using satellite imagery. In this blog series we focus in on our Mvurwi (Mvurwi and Ruia) and Gutu (Lonely and Clare) A1 sites.
The process of analysis carried out by Keen Marozwa of the Zimbabwe National Geospatial and Space Agency (ZINGSA)is outlined in the diagram below.
Since we were interested in changes since the 2000 land reform, we took different time points between 1999 and 2025. Landsat 5 imagery was used before 2010 and Landsat 8 afterwards. Training data was collected in all sites during May 2025, with 20% of image areas tested for accuracy. CART, MinDist and RandomForest models were used for image classification with accuracy assessed with the test data (Kappa coefficient and overall accuracy). LULC (land use land change) classes were then defined, and an assessment of hectares for each class by site (A1, A2, communal) in each district made for all time points. The land use classes were: forest, agricultural land, open water, sparse bush and bare ground.
Separate analyses were undertaken over a similar time period for built-up areas tracking small town growth in Mvurwi, Mpandawana, Chatsworth, Victoria Range (near Masvingo) and Maphisa. Changes in urban areas and implications for land use conflicts will be discussed in a forthcoming blog series. The satellite image analysis highlighted various patterns, but these were difficult to interpret. There were multiple changes in different directions over time, with no overall, clear pattern discernable for most sites. It was clear that there was no unilinear pattern of change. It was much more variable, and at an aggregate level the overall story was unclear. This meant that we had to go to the field, not just rely on the aggregated analysis from space.
We therefore took a selection of the maps to different field sites for discussions with local participants to get a better idea of what was going on. The patterns seen in the image analysis only tell part of the story. Importantly, they do not tell us why such changes occurred. We needed local insights for this analysis. Three participatory discussions with mixed age and gender groups of 15-20 were held in Hariana, Ruia and Chatsworth, with a group from both Clare and Lonely during March 2026.
These were lively discussions, ably facilitated by Felix Murimbarimba. In advance of the workshops, we identified several sites where significant changes of land use were observable. The workshops opened with a general discussion of ‘environment’ and ‘land use’, reflecting on local ideas of change, and the reasons behind these. In all sites these revealed that environmental change is not simple, driven by climate, population or changing market conditions, even though these are important.
Instead, what was emphasized in all settings was that changes in local land governance had the biggest impact on why land use changes occurred, with changing political and institutional factors highlighted as the most significant. Land use changes were also not uni-directional. Over the 25 years, we have seen expansions and contractions of farmed areas, forested sites and so on, with no simple pattern. These insights on the underlying drivers of change were only revealed by the intense discussions that we held at each site.
Satellite imagery analysis is a valuable tool for thinking about land use and environmental change, but it only becomes really useful when combined with participatory analysis of changes together with informed local participants. With such insights, we can understand what changes have occurred and why, as well as extend the analysis of the imagery with qualifications about even well-trained data that has ambiguous interpretations.
The following five blogs present the results from Hariana (Mvurwi), Ruia (Mvurwi), Lonely/Clare (Gutu) and Wondedzo/Sanangwe (Masvingo), with the final blog offering an overall reflection.
This is the first in a blog series on land use and environmental change and was written by Tapiwa Chatikobo, Keen Marozwa, Felix Murimbarimba and Ian Scoones. The blog first appeared on Zimbabweland